Teri Britt asked 2 months ago
The goal for sports punters is to earn a profit whilst enjoying our favourite sport. The sad truth is the fact that for many gamblers, this is an elusive dream. However by developing and carefully following a stratagem anyone can make this dream a reality.
There are actually two things to consider to cash in on sports gambling:
Bet Selection – Staking Plan – Bet Selection
The first, Bet Selection, is obvious – we need to back winners at least some of the time. Let’s consider Horse Racing, anecdotally there are various professional punters that earn an appropriate living from picking horses, though the key word here is professional. Research and analysis of each horse in the 59 racecourses through the UK takes a sizeable quantity of time and experience. If you want to become successful then it is a full-time job! For the vast majority of us it indicates we have to use the advice of experts to do some of the legwork for us.
Horse racing has no end of self-proclaimed “experts” via the internet charging up to Ł100 per month. When selecting a horse racing tipster the most significant factor we need to think about is long term results.
The web is awash with tipsters that have had one good month but then go on to post a loss for trusted quality soccer (simply click the up coming website page) the next six – but you will only see this one month on their home page! Never follow any tips without first checking the tipster’s full result history. Choose a tipster who publishes all their horse racing tips history, ideally where the outcome of the tips are published the next day in addition to a complete history of all their tips.
Take a look-at a Tipster Proofing site such as Racing-Index who grades the end result for a range of tipsters. Consider which tipster gives you gave for money and fits with your own betting profile – can you actually place the 100s of tips each month some tipsters require?
Following tipsters alone isn’t prone to earn us riches – the very best tipsters are locked out for new members or charge such high rates that any profits are lost immediately. The solution is to create our very own system using tips from expert sources combined with our very own research. This is the strategy successfully employed in greyhound racing by followers of the site. Like with many things; the greater you put into your system the better you can get out.
Once we have a betting strategy in place it really is time to look at a staking plan. The simplest is Fixed or Level Stakes where we simply bet the same amount, for instance 2% of our initial betting bank, each time on our selected horse, however we would want to increase our wagers as our betting bank grows. This leads to Percentage Staking where a percentage of the current betting bank is wagered each time. What this means is even as we win our stakes are larger and conversely the stakes shrink when the betting bank decreases.
In contrast, intuitively we know these staking plans to be overly naive once we will be putting the exact same amount of cash on a horse with low odds in comparison to a horse with high odds. As we are looking to maximise our profits we should be putting a larger stake on a low odds bet as the return will be less.
To search out the optimal staking plan we could take a correspondence course in statistics and dedicate several years into research. Fortunately we reside in age where this research is at our fingertips. From probability theory we possess the Kelly Strategy where the optimal percentage of our betting bank is calculated from the odds of the bet and our very own estimate of the probability of the horse winning.
Using an online Kelly Strategy Calculator just feed within the values to get the number of the betting bank to put on each horse. Now the Kelly Strategy can give us some scary percentage stakes if we have an initial run of high odds horses so we could adapt it to a Half Kelly Staking Plan where we wager half the percentage advised by the Kelly Strategy. This would cause a slower accumulation of gambling profits but a less hair-raising ride.